Expression of Interest For Climate-Forest-Water Security Interactions In Lao Pdr

Expression of Interest are invited for Climate-Forest-Water Security Interactions in Lao PDR Lao PDR is a water-rich, landlocked country in Southeast Asia bordering Cambodia, China, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam. It has renewable internal freshwater resources estimated at more than 26,963 m3 per capita, which is significantly above the world average of 5,500 as of 2020. Despite such seeming abundance, water is often limiting in many areas, particularly in the dry season, while floods are an increasing problem in the wet season. Lao PDR is amongst the most vulnerable countries to projected climate change trends, as its communities face significant climate-related hazards that are exacerbated by poverty, malnourishment, and high exposure of poor and marginalized communities. Lao PDR is known to be susceptible to the effects of climate change due to a mix of political, geographic, and social factors. It is ranked 142 out of 181 countries in the 2020 ND-GAIN Index. Increased temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns are likely to increase the frequency and intensity of floods, storms and droughts, the top-three natural hazards in the country. Without action, the population annually exposed to river flooding is projected to double to over 80,000 people by the 2030s, with annual damages estimated to increase to around US$454 million per year. The longer dry seasons, accompanied by more severe water shortages, are also predicted to affect the network of dams, and their power generation capacity and supply water for irrigation, while increased rainfall and more intense storm events will increase risks to the safety of dams and downstream communities. At the same time, projections suggest that climate change will severely affect the monsoon-influenced humid climates. Similarly, an increase in extreme river flows is projected in the region which might exacerbate flood damages and overall water insecurity. Forested landscapes have a strong effect on hydrological flows. Forests have high infiltration rates, which slows runoff, promotes groundwater recharge, and reduces erosion. Deforestation thus often results in increased flood risk in the wet season, reduced water availability in the dry season, and reduced groundwater recharge. Higher erosion causes sedimentation of reservoirs, reducing their storage capacity, and thus their ability to help regulate floods and store water for use in the dry season for use in HEP generation or irrigation. More intensive and more erratic precipitation patterns resulting from climate change will exacerbate these problems. The links between forests and other land uses and hydrological flows are highly heterogeneous. Typically, small portions (10-20%) of any given watershed contribute disproportionately to downstream water and sediment flows. Land uses changes in some portions of the watershed can thus cause severe problems, while the same land use changes elsewhere might have a negligible impact. The effect of forest cover on hydrological flows depends on many factors such as slope, soil type, and location, and on the interactions between these factors. The importance of hydrological flows also varies substantially, depending on the nature and magnitude of water uses. Reduced dry season flows affect users that rely on such flows, including run-of-the-river HEP plants and many irrigation systems. Higher sediment flows affect all users that rely on reservoirs, such as many HEP and irrigation systems. Reduced groundwater recharge affects users that rely on wells. Higher peak flows are of particular concern when large populations and/or valuable infrastructure is exposed to flooding. The objective of this Consultancy is to evaluate the interactions across land cover/use change, climate, and water demand in water accounting, water risks, and water security in Lao PDR. This study aims to model (a) how forest cover affects hydrological flows and sediment loads in Lao PDR and (b) how climate change will affect these relationships. The quantitative outputs are also expected to be used to estimate the extent to which these interactions will affect critical reservoirs (hydropower, irrigation, flood control, or multi-purpose) and sectors of the country. The assessment will also provide relevant data outputs to construct water accounts, develop cost-benefit analysis to assess specific conservation or restoration options, and overall the implications to water the Lao PDRs water security. The Consultancy will have two spatial dimensions of analysis: (1) a national-level characterization of the main hotspots of water stress risks, and (2) a deep-dive assessment of water-land use change in selected catchments. Tender Link : https://wbgeprocure-rfxnow.worldbank.org/rfxnow/public/advertisement/3862/view.html