Expression of Interest for Econsult: Consulting Services To Operationalize An Online Tool For Rapid Bottom-Up Climate Risk Assessment World Bank Global Water Practice

Econsult: Consulting Services To Operationalize An Online Tool For Rapid Bottom-Up Climate Risk Assessment World Bank Global Water Practice Water Managers Are Interested To Know How Much Additional Risk They Face Due To Climate Change. They Also Need To Know How That Information Can Be Incorporated In Planning, Investment Design, And Operations Of Water Infrastructure. With Increasing Attention To And Investments In Resilience And Climate Change Adaptation, It Becomes Essential To Evaluate And Measure The Potential Risks That Projects May Have Under A Changing Climate. Conventionally, Climate Risk Is Estimated Through "Top-Down" Approaches, Starting With A Selection Of General Circulation Model (Gcm) Projections, Continuing With Climate Downscaling, Then Estimating Potential Impacts Using Hydrology And System Models, And Finally Identifying Adaptation Options To Address These Potential Impacts.A Major Disadvantage Of Top-Down Approaches Is A Heavy Reliance On The Selected Climate Scenarios. Gcm Projections Do Not Adequately Describe The Range Of Potential Future Conditions That May Occur, And Most Often Misrepresent Climate Drivers Such As Multi-Year Droughts, Monsoon Patterns, Swings Between Extreme Events And The Influence Of Antecedent Conditions, And Shifts In Seasonality, Etc. They Are Useful For Evaluating Responses To Particular Emission Scenarios But Less Useful For Exploring And Evaluating Local Risks To Specific Infrastructure Plans Or Projects. For This Reason, The Banks Independent Evaluation Group Report On Adapting To Climate Change States That Gcms (And Thus Downscaling) Have Been Useful To Understand The Context But Not To Inform Investments And Public Policy.Gcm Projections Do Not Adequately Describe The Range Of Potential Future Conditions That May Occur, And Most Often Misrepresent Climate Drivers Such As Multi-Year Droughts, Monsoon Patterns, Swings Between Extreme Events And The Influence Of Antecedent Conditions, And Shifts In Seasonality, Etc.