Request for proposals for Development of Sectoral Climate Vulnerability and Risk Assessments and Technical Inputs for Mexicos National Adaptation Plan GGGI Mexico invites eligible firms/entities to submit proposals for the following assignment: Development of sectoral climate vulnerability and risk assessments and technical inputs for Mexicos National Adaptation Plan. Description : GGGI Mexico invites eligible firms/entities to submit proposals for the following assignment: Development of sectoral climate vulnerability and risk assessments and technical inputs for Mexicos National Adaptation Plan. PROJECT BACKGROUND: With 68% of its population and 71% of its GNP exposed to climate change impacts, the country faces significant challenges. Although Mexico has developed robust policy and institutional frameworks and implemented adaptation actions, efforts are falling short of achieving the desired levels of vulnerability reduction and resilience enhancement. Several barriers hinder Mexicos capacity to reduce vulnerability and enhance resilience. These include the absence of a dedicated national adaptation policy instrument, insufficient inter-institutional coordination to integrate adaptation into relevant strategies or development plans, and a lack of up-to-date data on environmental, social, and economic impacts of climate change. Additionally, there is a lack of a Monitoring, Evaluation, and Learning (MEL) system for tracking adaptation actions and finance, insufficient operation of climate funds, and limited involvement of the private sector and National Development Banks in financing climate adaptation. Mexico lacks a coherent national umbrella policy framework to articulate efforts required at policy, finance, capacity, implementation, and monitoring levels to achieve its adaptation goals. This proposal addresses these barriers and provides demand-driven support to Mexicos Government by developing Mexicos National Adaptation Plan (NAP) as an umbrella policy framework and an enabler for impactful implementation of prioritized adaptation actions. It aims to harmonize the NAP with existing institutional frameworks and design multi-sectoral consultation mechanisms. The project seeks to support the implementation adaptation actions by developing up-to-date, enhanced assessments, methodologies, and an investment portfolio to prioritize adaptation actions. The overall objectives of the assignment are as follows: a) Carry out climate risk assessments of prioritized regions and sectors, aligned with Mexicos NDC 3.0. b) Identify key climate risk hotspots prioritizing most exposed regions and sectors in Mexico, aligned with Mexicos NDC 3.0. c) Develop inputs for Mexicos National Platform for Risk and Adaptation to Climate Change and Geographic Information Systems-based visualization tools for the climate risk assessments. Proposed Activities and Scope of Work 1) Proposed Activities for the Overall Project This consultancy firm will assist GGGI Mexico in the GCF Funded project Advancing adaptation planning in Mexico will focus on two strategic priority lines: 1) Systemic water risk in prioritized sectors and 2) Integrated coastal risk. The deliverables must be developed under clear methodologies that generate direct, compatible inputs ready for integration into INECCs new National Platform for Risk and Adaptation to Climate Change.The project is structured into two interconnected components: Component 1. Climate risk assessments of prioritized regions/sectors, aligned with Mexicos NDC 3.0. This component focuses on the development of national level climate risk assessments establishing water resources as the guiding and cross-cutting axis of the assessments. To ensure feasibility and avoid duplication, the assessments will not model the entire hydrological cycle; instead, they will leverage existing climate data and focus on a prioritized subset of strategic sectors where water availability acts as a threat multiplier. The IPCC frameworks (AR5/AR6) will serve as the common conceptual baseline, but their operationalization will be differentiated by sector according to the availability, quality, and temporality of data.The firm must analyze how hydrological variability (scarcity, drought, and excess/floods) acts as a threat multiplier, impacting the risk of Mexicos socio-ecological systems. The assessments must quantify and qualify, subject to data availability, the cascading risks to water, food, and energy security, strategic infrastructure, the primary sector, key species and ecosystems, people and livelihoods, and coastal zones, including sea-level rise scenarios. The Firms must follow methodological guidelines indicated by concurring efforts developed by INECC (aligned with IPCC 2014). It includes the following deliverables: Deliverable 1. Inception Report, including the detailed work plan and data needs. Must include a refined methodology and data sources (leveraging approved GCMs and SSPs from INECCs platform, while remaining open to complementary inputs from other sources (e.g., Copernicus, reanalysis datasets, satellite products) as required by the specific risk calculations and other partner stakeholders regarding key water variables). It must establish a clear institutional purpose, prioritizing the generation of inputs for the National Platform for Risk and Adaptation to Climate Change. Deliverable 2. Water-Agriculture Risk Assessment. An in-depth climate risk analysis focused on rainfed and irrigated agriculture, strategically limited to 3 to 5 strategic crops or productive systems of national relevance (validated by INECC). The assessment must determine: o The dependence of these systems on water availability. o Their specific sensitivity to drought and water excess scenarios. o The direct link between climate impacts, agricultural productivity, and rural livelihoods. The Firm must also consider, using methodologies, data and models indicated and generated by INECC, The Firm must also consider existing municipal-level data on percentage changes in precipitation and temperature already developed by INECC. The Firm is not limited to these variables and may incorporate additional data sources, provided consistency is maintained with the GCMs used by INECC for flood and drought risk estimation. the differentiated impacts of water scarcity (meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural (subject to data availability) droughts) and water excess (extreme precipitation, fluvial flooding where feasible at the available spatial scale), projecting their frequency and intensity under different climate change scenarios. The ultimate objective is to identify how water stress and droughts compromises rural and freshwater fishery productivity and livelihoods, jeopardizing national food security. Deliverable 3. Water-Population Risk Assessment: Based on the finding from Deliverable 2, the Firm will conduct an analysis of potential impact patterns on the population, building upon the existing baseline of drought and flood risks. This study must characterize: o The conditions of access, continuity, and fragility of water-related services for human use. o Territorial factors (e.g., land-use planning and urban sprawl) that act as amplifiers of impacts on well-being, daily health, and habitability. o The differentiation of population and territorial profiles exhibiting the highest sensitivity to water stress. o The establishment of urban-rural typologies describing water impact and pressure across different demographic contexts. Deliverable 4. National Integrated Coastal Risk Diagnosis: A tiered national diagnosis combining a national screening of exposure and sensitivity, culminating in the construction of a typology of priority coasts. The analysis must integrate the following central axes: sea level rise, coastal erosion, saline intrusion into aquifers, and the loss of buffering ecosystems. The final product will identify relative risk hotspots and clearly map their main impact chains. Additionally, the Firm must assess the exposure of key infrastructure and population to coastal hazards, focusing on: road networks (given their role in connectivity and vulnerability to erosion and sea-level rise), coastal communities, schools, and hospitals. The assessment must also evaluate the impact on coastal fishery-based livelihoods, which serve as both a source of income and food security for these communities. Component 2. Identification and recommendations for adaptation solutions, measures and good practices considering the findings of risk assessments. This component has as objective to determine and spatially prioritize climate risk hotspots across the national territory, integrating the results from Component 1. The generated information must serve as technical inputs, ensuring compatibility with the National Platform for Risk and Adaptation to Climate Change and supporting strategic decision-making in line with Mexicos NDC 3.0 commitments. It includes the following deliverables: Deliverable 5. Hotspot Prioritization Report. The report must include a multi-criteria prioritization methodology that identifies the regions where the greatest water-related threats (drought/flood) converge with the greatest social and economic risk. It must include an "Urgency Ranking" of municipalities or watersheds, highlighting those where critical infrastructure and the primary sector are most compromised by water stress. Deliverable 6. Geospatial Database for the National Platform for Risk and Adaptation to Climate Change and Risk Indicators Factsheets. The Firm will deliver a geographic information package (Shapefiles, GeoJSON, or GeoPackage, SLD - Styled Layer Description) with standardized metadata (ISO 19115 standard or the one applied by INEGI/INECC). The report should also include the methodological sheets of the constructed risk indicators Tender Link : https://in-tendhost.co.uk/gggi/aspx/Tenders/Current
