Tenders Are Invited For Research And Development Services And Related Consultancy Services – C3s2_452 Development Of A Statistical Framework For Event Attribution

Research And Development Services And Related Consultancy Services – C3s2_452 Development Of A Statistical Framework For Event Attribution. The Main Objective Of This Invitation To Tender (Itt) Is To Develop A Statistical, E.G. Bayesian, Framework For Event Attribution To Support The Evolution Of C3s’S Operational Extreme Events Monitoring And Attribution Activities. C3s Aims To: (A) Develop A Statistical Framework For Event Attribution That Integrates Climate Model Output, Observations, Physical Drivers, Multi-Model Ensembles, And Prior Knowledge, And Produces Posterior Probability Distributions. (B) Deliver A Methodology With Accompanying Software Or Analytical Tools That Generate Probabilistic Attribution Assessments, Including Posterior Distributions Of Event Likelihood, Intensity, And Uncertainty. (C) Design The Framework To Be User-Friendly And Computationally Efficient, Supporting Future Practical Application Within C3s Operational Services And Enabling Climate Services, Adaptation Planning, And Risk Management.