Tenders are invited for Acquisition of Consulting Services for Nairobi Climate Adaptation & Resilience Plan (NCARP) Phase I 2. Project Background 2.1 About FSD Africa FSD Africa works to reduce poverty by strengthening Africas financial markets. Based in Nairobi, with anchor funding from the UKs FCDO, FSD Africa is a specialist development agency set up to support breakthrough ideas to build and strengthen financial markets across sub-Saharan Africa. FSD Africa does this by tackling the most intractable financial market challenges in Africa addressing issues associated with the lack of long-term finance, especially in local currency, and inadequate risk management capacity. FSD Africas team of financial sector experts work alongside governments, business leaders, regulators and policy makers to design and build ambitious programmes Established in 2012, FSD Africa is incorporated as a non-profit company limited by guarantee. More details are available on FSD Africa website at www.fsdafrica.org. FSD Africa focuses its work where the need is greatest, and believes the potential for impact is the most significant. FSD Africa has a specific mandate to invest in breakthrough, innovative ideas that can have a transformative impact. This project is closely aligned to FSD Africas green financing strategy, the FSD Africa end-toend structural reform approach, and FSD Africas history of engaging with investors, financial institutions, project developers and regulators. FSD Africas programming is run through its Adaptation & Resilience, Early-Stage Financing and Financial Markets Pillars, while investments are made through a separate arm FSD Africa Investments (FSDAi). Supporting functions are provided by Development Impact and Strategic Communications teams. 2.2 Project Context The Intractable Challenge Nairobi is a city increasingly under threat from climate change. Facing both chronic (long-term change) and acute (disasters) threats of flooding, storms, water scarcity and extreme heat, there is an urgent imperative to act to protect Nairobis infrastructure and five-million strong population from climate stressors. In Nairobis informal settlements, where 60-70% of the population lives, over 85 per cent of citizens reported experiencing heat stress in the past decade, along with disease and health-related maladies linked to climate change (Muchiri and Opiyo, 2022).1 50 per cent of Kibera residents had their homes flooded in the 2015 rainy season.2 Our existing work in Lagos suggests costs of inaction are substantial in all African cities, and especially in Nairobi. Under a scenario where the world follows a path in which social, economic, and technological trends do not shift markedly from historical patterns, by 2050, a combination of river level rise, water scarcity and extreme heat will result in billions in climate-inaction-related costs for Nairobi per annum. This cost will be presented in areas inundated by floodwaters, key ecosystems degraded and eroded, populations displaced and left economically vulnerable, damage to infrastructure, increased health-related public expenses, interruption to economic activity and increases in food dependency. This will likely be many times the Nairobi City Countys annual budget. Inaction is not an option.3 However, many cities including Nairobi have not quantitatively assessed these costs of inaction. Our conversations with Nairobi City County have shown us there is a desire to measure the cost of inaction, but a perceived difficulty in understanding where to start, how to link costs to IPCCs scenarios, where these costs will be spatially imposed, and which climate risks are relatively harsher. While some macroeconomic analysis has been undertaken at a national level through the World Banks Country Climate and Development Report (2023); by 2050, inaction against climate change could result in a decline in real GDP of 3.617.25 percent relative to the BAU baseline scenario this work is not applied to Nairobi, is fairly limited in its channels (only four of eleven impact channels are relevant to urban contexts), is spatially non-specific, and does not incorporate points of interest or counterfactual analysis.4 More analysis is required to define specific risks, impacts, and eventually, projects. NCCG has not yet set an ambition or project-level business cases to fund A&R linked projects. NCCG does not know how much it needs to fund, what projects would have the most impact, or what a programme of implementation may look like for the city. Most pipeline identification particularly driven by the IFC and C40 is aligned to mitigation or circular economy outcomes. The recent Nairobi City County Climate Change Act (2024, passed in November) and County Climate Change Fund (developed through the support of FSD Kenya) lays promising groundwork for further project preparation. However, to our understanding, no adaptation-linked projects have involved the private sector. All are reliant on concessional donor funding, given the tight fiscal constraints NCCG must navigate. Our preliminary diagnosis suggests the lack of adaptation financing could be attributed to multiple reasons including inadequate project readiness, limited public technical and analytical capacity, investor perception/understanding of risk and adaptation business models, and policy barriers such as the lack of (sub)- sovereign risk mitigation. Tender Link : https://www.developmentaid.org/#!/tenders/search
