Request for Proposal For Study On The Impact Of Vehicle Electrification On The Road Maintenance Levy Fund (Rmlf) And Alternative Financing Options

Request for proposals for Study on the Impact of Vehicle Electrification on the Road Maintenance Levy Fund (RMLF) and Alternative Financing Options in Kenya SCOPE OF WORK AND OUTPUTS/DELIVERABLES The selected consulting firm or consortium will undertake a comprehensive analytical and advisory assignment to assess the fiscal implications of vehicle electrification on Kenyas Road Maintenance Levy Fund (RMLF) and to propose viable, equitable and implementable alternative road financing mechanisms. The assignment will be carried out in close collaboration with relevant government institutions: 1.Baseline Assessment: The consultant will establish a robust baseline to underpin all subsequent analysis. This will include · Analyze historical and current RMLF revenues, road maintenance expenditure patterns, and fuel consumption data. · Profile the national vehicle fleet by type, fuel, usage, and age. · Map existing fiscal instruments relevant to transport and energy use (e.g. taxes, levies, subsidies). 3F 2. Forecasting and Scenario Modelling: The consultant will develop forward-looking scenarios to assess the impact of electrification on road financing. This will include · Develop EV uptake scenarios (e.g. conservative, moderate, accelerated) aligned with national targets or global trends. · Model the impact of each scenario on fuel and electricity demand and corresponding RMLF revenue impacts. · Project road maintenance costs under changing fleet structures, vehicle technologies, and road usage intensities. This will consider the planned road development and the estimated demand for road maintenance over years 3.Fiscal Impact Analysis: Building on the scenarios, the consultant will: · Quantify expected revenue shortfalls to the RMLF under each scenario. · Identify fiscal, legal, and institutional implications of possible decline or stagnation of fuel levy revenues 4. Alternative Financing Options: The consultant will assess potential options to diversify and future-proof road financing, including · Review global best practices on road user charging and alternative financing mechanisms (e.g. distance-based charges, EV-specific levies, electricity-based road user fees, carbon pricing, incomes-based solutions; behavioral incentives to shift to collective transportation or alternatives to individual vehicles such as bikes; simplicity vs. Complexity). · Mapping existing instruments identified in baseline assessment compared to other countries where alternative types of instruments have already been introduced. This mapping can also include novel instruments. · Conduct a comparative political-economy analysis based on the introduction of alternative financing mechanisms in other countries. · Propose contextually appropriate, feasible alternatives for Kenyas transport financing. 5. Model Development and Government Engagement: To ensure sustainability and uptake, the consultant will · Co-create a dynamic fiscal impact model with government partners to support future forecasting and policy decisions. · Conduct workshops with key ministries and stakeholders to validate assumptions, findings, and proposals. 6. Reporting and Deliverables · The assignment will deliver clear, decision-oriented outputs, including an inception report, interim analytical outputs, a validated fiscal model and a final report with actionable recommendations and implementation pathways. DELIVERABLES The expected deliverables are: Inception Report methodology, work plan, data requirements, and stakeholder engagement plan. Baseline Assessment Report - with comprehensive analysis RMLF revenues, fuel use, fleet profile, and road maintenance expenditure. Scenario and Forecasting Report EV uptake, fuel demand, and revenue projections. Fiscal Impact and Alternative Financing Report revenue impacts, comparative political economy analysis, and recommended financing options. Final Integrated Report consolidated findings and policy recommendations. Fiscal Impact Model user-friendly model with documentation and training materials. Stakeholder Engagement Outputs presentations, workshop summaries, and validation materials. Workshops will be organized by GoK and WRII TIMING The assignment is expected to be completed within 46 months from contract signature. A detailed timeline will be finalized at inception. Tender Link : https://www.wri.org/about/procurement-opportunities