Research Services – Modelling Climate Change Impacts For Coastal Sites In West Africa. 2. Scope Of Work And Key Tasks The Outcomes Of The Models Will Be An Integral Part Of The Creaf-Project, Informing Management- And Policy Decisions At The Local Level, While Also Providing A Framework For Similar Initiatives For Other Sites In The Future. To Achieve The Most Reliable Predictions, Models Must Be Grounded In Local Conditions And Consider The Hydrodynamics, Geomorphology, Ecology And Socio-Economy Of Each Site. The Consultant(S) Are Therefore Expected To Work Closely With Local Partners In Collecting Data And Validating Model Results, As Well As The Interpretation And Communication Of Model Results. Specifically, The Project Shall Focus On The Following Tasks: Key Tasks 1) Lead The Development Of Climate Change Impact Monitoring Systems For Key Sites With Different Habitats And Tidal Characteristics, The Banc Darguin In Mauritania And The Bijagós Archipelago In Guinea Bissau. - Compile Historical And Projected Climate Data Relevant To The Selected Sites. - Assist Local Partners In Identifying Available Hydrodynamic, Morphologic, Environmental, Socio-Economic, And Other Relevant Dataset, And/Or Developing Suitable, Cost-Effective, Field-Based Methodologies For Long-Term Monitoring Schemes For Other Parameters To Model Impacts. - Analyse Local Monitoring Data, Either From Existing Sources Or From New Field Efforts. - Analyse Remote Sensing Data That Can Be Used To Inform Specific Model Parameters For Which Field Observations Are Missing. - Consider The Expansion To The Saloum Delta In Senegal. 2) Develop Climate Change Impact Models That Best Fit The Local Requirements. - Develop Conceptual And Mathematical Representations Of Impact Pathways. - Identify The Most Suitable Combination Of Models For Each Site To Predict Ecosystem Changes, And Its Implications For Migratory Birds And Local Communities, Under Different Climate Change Scenarios. - Integrate Gis-Based Spatial Analysis, Where Relevant. - Develop A Minimum Of 2 Models, One For Banc Darguin And One For The Bijagós. - Ensure Transparency, Reproducibility, And Scalability. - Consider Suitability Of Models For The Saloum Delta (And Explore Necessary Adjustments). 3) Model Application - Calibrate The Model Using Historical Climate, Morphological, Ecological, And Socio-Economic Data. - Run The Model Under Multiple Climate And Socio-Economic Scenarios. - Validate Results Against Observed Trends Or Independent Datasets. - Assess Short-, Medium-, And Long-Term Risks To Migratory Birds And Local Communities. - Identify Thresholds, And Tipping Points, And Non-Linear Effects. - Map Exposure Of Habitats, Species Groups And Settlements To Climate Risk Factors. - Generate Outputs Relevant To Policy And Management. 4) Model Interpretation And Use - Assist Project Partners In Translating Model Outputs Into Actionable Recommendations. - Support Prioritisation Of Interventions. - Provide Documentation For Future Model Updates And Use. The Consultant/Team Of Consultants Is Expected To
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