Request For Expression Of Interest For Basin Wise Ehp Model For Medium Long Term Forecasting

Request For Expression Of Interest For Basin Wise Ehp Model For Medium Long Term ForecastingGovernment Of IndiaNational Project Monitoring Unit Npmu National Hydrology Project Nhp Ministry Of Water Resources River Development Ganga Rejuvenation International Competitive Bidding Expression Of Interest Eoi For Consultancy ServicesFor Extended Hydrological Prediction Multi Week Forecast ForNational Hydrology Project Janurary 2019Rology Project Nhp Is Countrywide Project With 49 Implementing Agencies Ias Including Eight Central Agencies 39 State Ut Level Agencies And Two River Basin Organizations Rbo The National Hydrology Project Nhp Is Proposed To Be An Eight Year Project Starting From November 2016 It Aims For Integrated Water Resources Management To Enable Improved Decisions In Water Resources Planning And Operations This Requires Not Just Improved Water Information Systems And Decision Support Systems But Also Enhanced Institutional Capacity Both Technical Capacity And Policy Planning Capacity The Project Development Objective Of The Project Is Proposed To Improve The Extent Quality And Accessibility Of Water Resources Information And To Strengthen The Capacity Of Targeted Water Resources Management Institutions In India Extended Hydrological Prediction Ehp Is The Prediction Of Hydrological Variables Most Commonly The Monthly Seasonal Stream Flow For A Period Of Time That Exceeds The Common Short Term Forecasts That Are Usually Provided By Most Forecasting Agencies Within A Time Horizon Of No Longer Than One Week While The Short Term Forecast Is Based On The Observed Hydrological And Meteorological Variables E G Precipitation Temperature Discharges Etc And Optionally On Their Forecasts The Ehp May Rely On Other Climatological Drivers And It Often Relies On Stochastic Or Statistical Techniques The Lead Time Of Ehp Thus May Differ From Weeks To Months Depending On The Duration Of The Effect Of The Initial Condition Of The Basin And The Effect Of Other Drivers Used In Ehp Methods Employed By Ehp Differ Significantly For Wet And Dry Seasons The Performance Of Precipitation Forecast Of Numerical Weather Prediction Nwp Declines With The Lead Time The Use Of The Deterministic Forecast Beyond The Time At Which Their Accuracy Is Worse Than 50 Does Not Make Sense Therefore In Meteorological Forecasts The Ensemble Systems Are Often Used For Longer Lead Times Which Are Often Referred To As The Medium Range Forecasts Objectives Of Consultancy The Consultant Has To Investigate The Multi Week Forecasts Basin By Basin And Comment On Their Usefulness And Reliability For A Particular River Basin The Consultant Is Expected To Review The Existing Similar Forecasts Around The World And Summarize Their Success Rate To Date Following This Step Select The Most Successful Approaches For Further Investigation And See If They Are Applicable To India It Should Be Noted That There Are Conservative Seasonal Flow Forecasts Algorithms For Dry Season Flows That Exist And That Are Based On Sound Scientific Principles That May Also Be Applicable In India Those Will Be Tested By The Consultant On The Selected River Basins The Main Objective Of The Consultancy Is To Develop Tools For Multi Week Runoff Forecast In The Selected Basins Multi Week Forecasts For The Monsoon Periods Should Cover A Period Of Up To Four Weeks From The Date Of Issuing Forecasts The Consultancy Will Include The Following Steps Literature Review Of The State Of The Art Regarding Multi Week Hydrologic Forecasting Around The World Including A Review Of The Current Practices By Other Agencies Conceptual Approach And Methodology Proposed Methods To Be Tested For Monsoon Multi Week Monthly Flows Proposed Methods To Be Tested For Non Monsoon Multi Week Monthly Flows Historic Data Collection And Processing What Data Will Be Required Data Availability Quality Control Etc Model Verification Methodology And Discussion Of The Verification Results Analyses And Ranking Of Tested Models Regarding Their Robustness Reliability And Accuracy Designing Of The Portal For The Selected Model Such That Its Results Can Be Uploaded To The Database For Further Use As Input Into Other Models This Comes At The End After The Final Model Selection Was Made And Reliability Determined As Acceptable Production Of Final Documentation Training Workshops For Capacity Building Of Central State Professionals

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